El Niņo Project

Problem:

How does the El Niņo of 1997-1998 compare with others?  Is it truly the El Niņo of the century?

Hypothesis:

Based on the extreme Sea Surface Temperaturs (SST) in the Pacific as compared to long time records, we hypothesize that indeed this is the El Niņo of the century.

Materials:

  1. Networked computers using Windows NT
  2. Reynolds_OI_SST Global Database for the period 1982-1997
  3. Atmospheric general circulation Model (AGCM) 1997, which depicts SST, SLP, global winds and precipitation
  4. Transform software for the PC

Procedure:

  1. Acquire seasonal averages from monthly averages
  2. Acquire the average for the base period (1982-1997)
  3. Obtain the anomolies for the 1997-1998 ENSO, the 1986-1987 ENSO, and the 1982-1983 ENSO
  4. Plot the (six) individual bouys and their SSTs
  5. Obtain precipitation anomolies or just precipitation data
  6. Make observations as to where rain has changed

Conclusions:

  • Anomoly of 1982-1983: In the 1982-1983 anomoly of El NIņo year, the temperature in the Equatorial Pacific was one to four degrees Celsius higher than normal
  • Anomoly of 1997-1998: In the 1997-1998 anomoly of the El Niņo year, the temperature in the Equatorial Pacific ranged from two Celsius degrees below to three degrees above normal
  • Therefore it is evident that this may not be the El Niņo of the Century: the 1982-1983 El Niņo is the largest El Niņo of the last ten years. However, it appears from our research that the seasonal averages may vary, and the 1997-1998 El Niņo is in fact greater than the El Niņo in certain seasons. We will conduct further investigations to discover in which seasons the El Niņo is greater.
  • Anomoly of 1982-1983: In the 1982-1983 anomoly of the El Niņo year, the temperature in the Equatorial Pacific was one to four degrees Celsius higher than normal.
    •

  • Therefore it is evident that this may not be the El Niņo of the Century: the 1982-1983 El Niņo is the largest El Niņo of the last ten years. However, it appears from our research that the seasonal averages may vary, and the 1997-1998 El Niņo is in fact greater than the El Niņo in certain seasons. We will conduct further investigations to discover in which seasons the El Niņo is greater.

    • Team Members:

  • Science Advisor: Dr Ron Miller
  • Teacher Researcher: Mr. Mitchell Fox
  • Student Researcher: Wan Li Zhu, Amir Zelany, Beverly Anne Levine, Dorothy Louis, Oliver Chen, Shanty Mathew, Raysa Rodriguez, Christopher R. Hippolyte

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